Deming, Passing–Bablok, or ordinary least squares? Choosing a regression for method comparison Ordinary least squares is the line every spreadsheet draws by default — and in a method comparison it is usually the wrong one. A single assumption tells you which procedure to use instead, and when.

If you have accepted that the correlation coefficient cannot tell you whether two methods agree, the next question is which regression can. Ordinary least squares is the line every spreadsheet will draw for you without being asked. In a method comparison it is usually the wrong one.

The reason is a single assumption. Understanding it tells you almost everything you need to pick the right procedure.

The assumption that breaks ordinary least squares

Ordinary least squares (OLS) fits a line by minimising the vertical distances from the points to the line. Minimising only the vertical distances is equivalent to assuming that the horizontal axis, your X method, is measured without error. Every bit of scatter is attributed to Y.

In a method comparison, that assumption is false. Both methods have measurement error; that is why you are comparing them. When error is present in X, OLS systematically underestimates the slope. The line is pulled flatter than the true relationship, an effect known as regression dilution or attenuation. You can end up reporting a proportional bias that is partly an artefact of your model rather than a property of your method.

There is one valid case for OLS: when X is a true reference method whose error is negligible relative to the range of values. Even then, Linnet (1993) showed that while the slope and intercept estimates carry little bias, their standard errors are underestimated. The confidence intervals are too narrow and the hypothesis tests too liberal. You get plausible-looking point estimates wrapped in confidence intervals you cannot trust. For most comparisons, use something other than OLS.

Deming regression: error in both methods

Deming regression is the errors-in-variables answer. Instead of minimising vertical distances, it minimises the distances to the line at an angle set by the ratio of the two methods’ error variances. It assumes both methods are measured with error, the realistic case, and returns a slope that is not attenuated.

What Deming requires in return is that variance ratio. If you measure your samples in replicate, Analyse-it estimates the error of each method from the data and computes the ratio for you. If you have only single measurements and no external estimate, a ratio of 1 is sometimes assumed as a default. That makes Deming equivalent to orthogonal regression.

The default is acceptable when the measuring range is wide relative to the measurement error. When the range is narrow it reintroduces bias and underestimated standard errors (Linnet 1998), so replicate measurement is worth the effort.

Weighted Deming (Linnet 1990) handles the common situation where precision is not constant across the interval, where the standard deviation grows with concentration, so the method has a roughly constant coefficient of variation rather than a constant SD. It assumes the ratio of CVs is constant instead of the ratio of variances, and weights the fit accordingly. If your scatter plot shows a band that fans out as values increase, this is the model you want.

Confidence intervals for Deming parameters use a t-distribution with standard errors from a jackknife procedure, which makes the inference reasonably robust in practice.

Two panels of the same points and fitted line: on the left, ordinary least squares with vertical residual lines; on the right, Deming with oblique residual lines tilted off the perpendicular by the error-variance ratio.
What each fit minimises. Ordinary least squares measures the error vertically, assuming the comparative method is exact. Deming allows error in both and measures it along a direction set by the ratio of the two methods’ error variances — perpendicular only in the special case where the errors are equal. When the comparative method carries error, the vertical view pulls the OLS slope flat.

Passing–Bablok regression: robust and assumption-light

Passing–Bablok takes a different route, estimating the slope as the shifted median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The construction is non-parametric construction that makes no assumption about the distribution of the measurement errors and is strikingly resistant to outliers. One or two aberrant points that would pull an OLS or Deming line away from the true relationship barely move a Passing–Bablok fit.

Passing–Bablok comes in two forms, and choosing the wrong one is a common error. Part I is for methods measured on the same scale, when the purpose is to test whether they are equal. Part III is for methods on different scales, or when the goal is to convert results from one method to the other rather than to test equality. Pick the one that matches your intent.

The trade-offs: Passing–Bablok assumes the relationship is linear (as do the others, check this first), and it expects the ratio of the error variances to remain proportional to the square of the slope across the interval, which in the common case of similar methods (slope near 1) is unrestrictive. On very large datasets the all-pairwise-slopes computation is heavier, though on modern hardware this rarely matters.

Deming vs Passing–Bablok vs OLS at a glance

Ordinary least squares Deming Passing–Bablok
Error in X Assumed to be none Allowed for, via the variance ratio Allowed for, no ratio needed
What it minimises Vertical distances Distances at an angle set by the variance ratio Nothing — the slope is the shifted median of all pairwise slopes
Distribution assumed Normal errors Normal errors None
Sensitive to outliers Yes Yes No
Non-constant precision Needs weighting Use weighted Deming Handled by Part III on a log scale
Extra input required None The ratio of the two error variances None
Use it when The X method really is a reference with negligible error Both methods have error and you can estimate the ratio Distribution is doubtful, or outliers are present

The two errors-in-variables procedures usually agree closely on clean data. Where they part company is instructive: a large gap between the Deming and Passing–Bablok slopes generally means either an outlier pulling the Deming fit, or a variance ratio that does not hold across the range.

A worked example: five fits, one dataset

The differences are easiest to see on a single dataset. The CLSI EP09-A3 worked example at the bottom of this page compares two measurement procedures across a set of patient samples spanning the measuring interval, and fits all five procedures to the same data, ordinary and weighted least squares, Deming and weighted Deming, and Passing–Bablok, each reporting the bias at a medical decision point with its confidence interval and a hypothesis test.

Laid side by side, the five fits show which distinction actually matters for this dataset:

  • Ordinary least squares and Deming almost coincide (slopes 1.070 and 1.074). The samples span a wide range relative to the measurement error, so the attenuation that would flatten the OLS slope is negligible here. The correction Deming exists to make barely changes the answer.
  • The weighted fits pull the slope down (weighted least squares to 0.924, weighted Deming to 1.037), because they give less weight to the high-concentration samples, where the scatter is larger. When imprecision grows across the range, the weighting moves the slope more than the choice between ordinary and Deming does.
  • Passing–Bablok sits near identity (1.003) without any distributional assumption, close to the weighted results.

Which distinction matters depends on the data. On a wide, clean range like this one, ordinary and Deming agree and the weighting is what moves the slope. On a narrow range, or against a noisier comparative method, the ordinary-versus-Deming attenuation would be the thing that shifts instead, as the earlier sections describe. Fitting all five, rather than trusting one, is how you see which effect is actually in play.

A matrix of six small plots of the same method-comparison data. Five show the data with one fitted regression line each, labelled with its slope: ordinary least squares 1.070, weighted least squares 0.924, Deming 1.074, weighted Deming 1.037, Passing-Bablok 1.003. The sixth overlays all five fitted lines.
The same dataset fitted five ways (CLSI EP09-A3, Example 2), each cell showing that fit’s line and slope, with all five overlaid in the last. The scatter is near-identical across the fits — the slope is where they differ. On this wide, clean range the unweighted fits nearly coincide (ordinary least squares 1.070, Deming 1.074); it is the weighting that moves the slope, not the ordinary-versus-Deming attenuation.

Open the workbook in the Analyse-it trial, run Method Comparison, and switch between the fits. The scatter plot, residuals, and bias-at-decision-point estimates update for each. That is the fastest way to build an intuition for when the choice matters and when it does not.

A decision guide

Work through it in this order. First, check linearity and residuals, before choosing any fit. Every procedure here assumes the relationship between the methods is linear. A CUSUM linearity test and a residual plot will tell you whether that holds. If the relationship bends, no choice of regression rescues it. You need to reduce or partition the measuring interval first.

Then choose:

Situation Procedure
X is a true reference method, error negligible Ordinary least squares — cautiously, knowing the CIs run narrow
Both methods have error; errors roughly Gaussian; you want statistical efficiency Deming
As above, but precision is proportional to concentration (constant CV, fanning scatter) Weighted Deming
Outliers present, non-Gaussian errors, or you want the fewest assumptions Passing–Bablok
Methods on different scales, or you are deriving a conversion Passing–Bablok, Part III

When two procedures are both appropriate, running them side by side is informative. Close agreement between, say, Deming and Passing–Bablok estimates is reassuring. A divergence is usually a signal worth investigating.

Downloads

Download the CLSI EP09-A3 method comparison example workbook (.xlsx) — the same dataset fitted with ordinary and weighted least squares, Deming, weighted Deming, and Passing–Bablok, ready to open in the Analyse-it trial.

Common mistakes

Five recur often enough to be worth naming.

Using OLS out of habit. It is the spreadsheet default and the line most people were taught first, so it gets used without a second thought, in the one setting where its core assumption is guaranteed to be violated. If you take nothing else from this page: the default line is the wrong line for method comparison.

Defaulting the Deming variance ratio to 1 on a narrow range. Assuming equal error variances is fine when the measuring interval is wide relative to the measurement error. On a narrow range it reintroduces the very bias Deming exists to remove. Measure in replicate and let the ratio be estimated from the data.

Choosing the wrong Passing–Bablok variant. Part I tests equality on the same scale. Part III converts between scales. Reaching for Part I when you are really deriving a conversion, or vice versa, gives you a technically valid fit answering the wrong question.

Assuming the same choice applies to calibration. The weighting question is the same, but a calibration curve is fitted in one direction and used in the other. See fitting a calibration curve.

Skipping the linearity and residual checks. Every regression here assumes linearity. Fit first, check never, and a curved relationship can look like a clean slope with a misleading bias estimate. Check linearity before you trust any parameter.

Reading a high correlation as justification for OLS. A near-perfect r says your sample range is adequate, not that ordinary regression is appropriate. Those are two different claims, and only one of them is true.

What the regression is for

Whichever fit you choose, the slope and intercept are intermediate results. What your reader, a reviewer, an auditor, a clinician, needs to know is the bias at the decision points that matter, with a confidence interval, tested against an allowable difference. The regression is how you estimate that bias without distortion. Matching the fit to the error structure of your data keeps the comparison sound; a line that ignores the error structure can look tidy and still mislead.

Fit the right regression with Analyse-it

Analyse-it fits all five in a single method comparison analysis, on your own data, inside Excel:

  • Ordinary and weighted least squares, Deming and weighted Deming, and Passing–Bablok (1983 and 1988)
  • CUSUM linearity testing and residual diagnostics, so the fit can be checked rather than assumed
  • Bias estimated at each medical decision point, with a confidence interval

Every feature from all five editions for 15 days. Method comparison is in the Method Validation and Ultimate editions, from US$ 475 a year. The Medical edition covers Bland–Altman agreement and bias at decision points, but not the regression fits. Validated against NIST and CLSI reference datasets. Full detail in the method comparison reference guide.